Some Knock-on Effects in Africa and the Middle East--
"Putin’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine began to isolate Russia from other nations and their resources. The Russian Wagner Group of mercenary fighters has been a key player in Africa since then, often called in by authoritarian leaders to suppress political opposition in exchange for access to mines or other valuable resources. Russia has become the biggest supplier of arms to the continent.
The fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad threatens Russia’s ability to continue to operate in Africa. As Mike Eckel of Radio Free Europe explained on Monday, Russia launches most of its African operations from the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base on the Mediterranean coast of Syria. Their loss would hamstring those operations. Russian officials are trying to negotiate with the insurgents who overturned Assad’s regime in order to secure those bases as well as Russia’s other footholds in the country."
Letters from an American Historian
Already figured Assad's fall had something to do with Russia and Iran's lack of direct military support recently, both more preoccupied with military conflicts elsewhere, in Ukraine and Israel, but this account suggests regime change in Syria additionally might also reduce Russia using Syria as a launching pad for their mercenary military adventures in Africa. And, by the way, it's also more evidence of the collateral costs to Russia for invading Ukraine. Meanwhile, Israel is rushing to expand and solidify land grabs in Syria during the chaos of the transition. And everywhere, in the middle east anyway, the Islamists have been pushed back, if not bludgeoned into total disarray or mass humanitarian crises, and Netanyahu is posing for war hero photo shoots in a combat helmet, looking smug and ridiculous but triumphant. I don't know what all goes into peaceful coexistence but I'm pretty sure there are some crucial missing ingredients in the current situation.
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