Showing posts with label 2015. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2015. Show all posts

The Ibis Trilogy: Postcolonial Historical Fiction in a Colonial Business Model World

I saw recently an educator I've respected for a long time extolling the great learning value of novels and fiction writing over non-fiction. Learners identify with characters better than analytical frameworks. 

I've recognized something like this before as a weakness in my own career as a high school classroom teacher. I recall a student complaint once that I wasn't giving enough attention to the characters and "pageantry" of history. You know, the legendary heroes and ceremonial grandeur of history. Let's re-enact the characters signing the Magna Carta-- which might be a very good idea, by the way-- but not my teaching strength, for sure. Anyway, I know the nearly universal approval of, if not kindly tolerance for, my own classroom teaching style, for which I will always be grateful, is mostly attributable to student approval of me, a person, a personable character, school teacher, Mr. Thompson, far more than any appreciation for my content lessons in world history. 

A breakdown of my own reading over the years, with minor variations at one time or another, is probably something like 50% non-fiction histories or social science-y books (with big bias for left populist critical theory), 25% books about popular music, and 25% novels or fiction. Accordingly, the juice in my own classroom teaching largely came from my enthusiasm for big picture social science-y takes on world history, political economy, economic trends, political power structures, cultural and sociological movements, big periodizing shifts in history: Bronze Age, Columbian Encounter, Industrial Revolution, Colonialism and Imperialism. I always tended to neglect the character-driven war stories and great men anecdotes; the general pageantry of kings and queens and their courts. The game of thrones. (1)

Character-driven narratives were never my strength in my own teaching but that didn't mean I didn't like them. I developed a big taste for historical fiction in books and movies and TV series once I started teaching, including now podcasts, more background stuff to read or look at while immersing myself in whatever historical time period. 

Partly my predilection for big picture/Big History takes on world history is attributable to my limited brain powers. I found it far easier to hold onto the big structural outlines and questions than the scholarly details, names and dates, and particular biographical anecdotes and stories. But I also undoubtably gravitated towards the big picture stuff, the class analysis, the never-ending conspiracy of the rich against the poor, because my own origins are working class (non-college educated working class parents and grandparents, both sides) and the social justice stuff turned me on. Touched some built-in familial pride in me. I've never had any doubts that there is a class war going on, the systematic oppression of common working people, I saw it around me growing up and I recognized it immediately in history. Nor have I ever had any doubt about whose side I am on in the class war. If there are working class whites, including many in my extended family, that have been taken in by Trump's con it is they who have abandoned the side of working people. Not me. My reading of Howard Zinn's People's History of the United States in the late 1980s was a big awakening for me, a big Woke moment, and probably had as much to do with my getting into school teaching as any other book I've ever read. In short, I was teaching CRT in the public schools long before this fascist anti-Woke thing took over the country. And I always liked Angela Davis and Herbert Marcuse, vilified by conservative bullies like Christopher Rufo, going way back.  

Nevertheless, I have also always liked pop culture and novels and, especially once I began classroom teaching, character-driven historical fiction. So while I was lecturing in my tedious power-point bullet-point breakdown style for all those years (and which I truthfully and mercifully always strove to keep to a minimum) I actually developed quite a taste for good historical fiction. Good, meaning, believable or convincing characters and material conditions. My standards for believable or convincing were not literary or scholarly, of course. They were more public education generalist fan-boy of popular literary scholarship, with a big streak of lifelong fan-boy critic of the popular arts. 

I draw the line with 90% of the costume dramas Hollywood produced in its golden age, 1940s to 1960s, for instance. Stagy and dead like museum dioramas. And basically unwatchable, or typically appreciated only for their camp pretensions. Which sweepingly dismisses museums and theater and the golden age of cinema, which isn't my intention or even without exception close to true. My point: There is a textural reality to the material conditions that I respond to; a grit, a realistic material texture to the history that I need to find in my historical fiction, book or movie. If it is there, this convincing historical visual or textural feel, it is often enough for me, even when the literary and/or dramatic standards of the characters is maybe a little lacking, or otherwise pretty cheesy or lousy. This goes for books or movies. Although the stiff, cardboard, predictable character problem might be a bigger weakness in TV/movies than books, or I've encountered more or it in TV/movies anyway. 

Anyway, my appreciation for the convincing material reality of historical fiction is hardly scholarly. I'm vibing off whatever I've read about whatever history, responding to a visualization that is more imaginative and stylized than documentary. Although I'm applying some standards of verisimilitude I've internalized from the books I've read and the movies I've watched. My big hot take on the historical fiction scene, such as I know of it-- very limited-- is that there's way too much of it set in Europe and about the game of thrones stuff, dynastic monarchy succession wars, endless fratricide, a small court, probably 3-5% of the population max, vie for a secure place in the monopoly control of violent power, everyone else, "the little people" in Game of Thrones, the rest scrounge out an existence and try to stay out of the way and not be firebombed by the Queen's dragons. The politics of game of thrones is drearily familiar to politics today, unfortunately. But I often prefer historical fiction that brings to life and believably imagines the complex texture of other historical worlds, outside medieval Europe.  

Amitav Ghosh's historical fiction, specifically, his Ibis Trilogy of books, set in India and China and the Indian Ocean Trade Network are a beautiful case in point. I was drawn to his books because of my interest in the Opium Wars of the mid-19th century, 1839-1861, between Great Britain and China. An epic example of predatory capitalism in the very beginnings of capitalist rule, forcing on China the humiliation of foreign rule in a series of unequal treaties that lasted for the next century. Wars orchestrated by the British East India Company (EIC) and backed by the US and other Western imperialist interests, literally, explicitly, promising to take over China's trade in the name of "free trade." Specifically, free trade in opium that is spreading addiction and crisis in China. I think there are some historians who would still like to contend that "predatory capitalism" is leftist myth and there is no such thing in history. Really? The Opium Wars were "predatory capitalism," free market profits overwhelming better judgement and brutal and criminal in the disregard for human rights and national independence of others. Anyway, I ran across a reference to Ghosh's books somewhere, started with The Glass Palace (2005), which he says now was where his idea for the Ibis Trilogy came together for him, and was intrigued by the prospect of a South Asian take on the Opium Wars. Did not disappoint.    

Sea of Poppies (2008): The Ibis is a British schooner, formerly a slave ship, being repurposed for transporting poor indentured laborers, girmityas, poor coerced labor, from India to Mauritius (a remote Indian Ocean island off the coast of Madagascar), and runs into a massive storm on the sea and faces mutiny. The Ibis sets off from Calcutta, capital of West Bengal, NE region of India, an urban center of early British opium production, ran by a department of the EIC (yes, really) called the Opium Department. Characters include Bihari peasant migrants from the north. A region where Ghosh grew up, and his parents had a peripheral relationship to the opium trade. Also, coincidentally, where George Orwell grew up, and his father was employed by the Opium Dept as well. You meet Bengali Zamindars, local landlords, some very rich and educated, subordinated and regularly humiliated by British agents of the Opium Dept. This was a big theme of The Glass Palace as well, although with less opium. In Sea of Poppies we meet a variety of merchant traders and govt officials from Europe, Indian Parsi (Persian) merchants and laborers, and Chinese merchants and laborers. And Lascars, sailors or soldiers employed by the British and other European colonizers, about half coming from the Indian subcontinent and the other half an incredibly diverse mix of sailors from SE Asia (Malays), the Middle East (Arabs), and Africans (Swahili), and could also include sailors of Japanese and Caribbean origins. The Lascars spoke a Chinese Pidgin English they adapted to their multilingual circumstances and were so ubiquitous in Indian Ocean maritime trade-- basically, because they were good sailors and very cheap-- that Western powers tried unsuccessfully to limit their employ. Not entirely unlike MAGA reaction against the ubiquity of poor immigrants in low-wage jobs today. Sea of Poppies highlights the similarities between slave and indentured labor systems in opium production and more broadly. The striking resemblance of indentured labor of plantations to slave labor in plantation agriculture. Ghosh has a sympathetic eye for poor peasants and Lascars and even the middling Zamindars, fallen nobility, trying to adapt to the colonial conditions of living with and under the British Empire. Includes romantic love between people from different classes, backgrounds, and the repressive conditions that oppose this cultural mixing.  

River of Smoke (2011): This story is set in Canton, China, in the 13 Factories, the epicenter of the First Opium War, 1839-1842, and so in respect to the setting the most cinematic of the trilogy. This is the Pearl River Delta, the confluence of three great rivers, opening into the South China Sea; an area today that includes Guangzhou (formerly known as Canton), Schenzhen, Hong Kong and a Greater Bay Area urban conglomeration of 70 million people. The Pearl River Delta is a bustling southern port connecting China to SE Asia and the Indian Ocean Trade Network and the middle east, going back to the earliest centuries of the common era. River of Smoke is a complex portrait of this coastal trading port city and region at a specific point in this long history. The 19th century, 1830s, on the eve of the Opium Wars. And, specifically, it's about how the imperial state of China, the Qing Dynasty, has since the mid-18th century tried to restrict the increasingly disruptive forces of foreign trade to this port region with a system of trade known as the Canton Factories; or 13 Factories, which by the time of the Opium Wars numbered more like 17 or 18 factories. They weren't really factories in the sense we think of factories as buildings enclosing manufacturing operations. The different factories were like embassies or compounds based on the national origin of the trade: British (EIC), Dutch (VOC), American, French, Spanish, etc. They were trading posts: big port warehouses in the ground floor, with second floor living quarters for the foreign traders. And these factories were where these foreigners were supposedly for the most part physically restricted. Local Chinese merchants, rich and well connected, served as factory hosts or landlords. For all the restrictions, however, there are a handful of British and American traders, known affectionately as "Canton graduates," making huge dynastic fortunes of wealth from selling opium to China via the factory system. And then around them swirls a wildly diverse network of characters caught up in the trade in opium and interactions with the factories: foreign traders, local Chinese merchants, agents of the EIC, local boat people, adventuring (if not desperate) zamindars from India, lascars from the vast Indian Ocean Trade Network, fugitive indentured laborers (read: contractual slaves, basically), a mixed-race American, European botanical scholars. It's a complex menagerie of peoples. All trying to profit from and/or live with this terrible trade. And all living and working amidst many tens of thousands, 90% plus of the population (2), trying to survive this hurly-burly of commerce, if not suffer enslavement to it. The Dan people (or Tanka), a local people indigenous to the Pearl River Delta, have been barred by imperial China, the Qing, from building on land, and live and do their business on islands of small boats or junks in the tens of thousands (boats and people) tied together and floating in the river. Forming a floating island of a Red Light district of opium dens and brothels and cheap labor and links to illegal trade. Scorned by local Cantonese landlubbers, with the possible exception of the Chinese merchants (and foreign traders, of course) who employ and profit off them. The main action of the story is the convergence of all these people, groups, cultures, conjoining and competing interests on the eve of the Opium Wars. The details are too many for my powers of recollection but, nonetheless, give a rich, vivid, textural depth and complexity to the location of the opening battles in the Opium Wars. The Pearl River Delta, Canton, China. The dramatic setting is where foreign trade took over China in the mid-19th century and where China has now possibly taken over foreign trade in the 21st century, or a super big chunk of it anyway, a global convergence zone of staggering scale. 


Flood of Fire (2015): The final installment in the series has all the big historical build-up events to the Opium Wars, the Qing crackdown on the opium trade, dumping tons of opium into the Pearl River, burning down the factories, and the British establishment of Hong Kong and the unequal treaties, reducing China to colonial subjects carved up by Western powers. But the battle scenes, the fires consuming the factories, are brief, if vivid and dramatic. The main action is all the multicultural interactions and conflicts in the characters of the Ibis Trilogy brought together by the opium trade, coming to head, destroying lives and birthing new more complex and multicultural ones at the same time. A Hindi woman runs away from sati sacrifice for her deceased husband, eloping with a lower-caste indentured servant, cursing her brother's life for her betrayal of the strict Indian caste order. Similarly, an Indian Parsi (Persian) woman, looking for the 'illegitimate' child of her late husband, a successful Parsi merchant in China, hooks up with an Armenian man, and emotionally wrestles with the condemnation of her orthodox Parsi community. A mixed (quadroon) American, Zachary Reid, passes as white to advance his opportunities in the factory trade system. Indian fugitives from the EIC's colonial justice live on the precarious margins of the opium trade. Hong Kong begins as a multicultural trading post committed to parasitically profiting off the poisoning of China with opium. 

Overall, the Ibis Trilogy is a sympathetic and cinematic portrayal of a bunch of underdog characters in the Indian Ocean Trade Network, subalterns, lascars, fallen zamindars, and various well-intentioned scholarly adventurers (like Ghosh, undoubtably) caught up in the tumult of the opium trade and Opium Wars. Great stuff but hadn't thought too much about the series again until hearing about Ghosh's Smoke and Ashes: Opium's Hidden Histories (2023) from the Empire podcast. I'm not a completist with the Empire podcast by any stretch buts lots of great topics, like this one on the Opium Wars called "Victorian Narcos." Also, Empire is always good for reading references in various topics in world history. At any rate, Smoke and Ashes is Ghosh's memoir about writing the Ibis Trilogy. I actually began the book with a little trepidation, because the Ghosh book I've enjoyed least in the five books by him I've got to so far was the only other nonfiction memoir book I've read by him. Maybe I'll find his nonfiction work tedious, I feared. But not so with Smoke and Ashes. 

On the surface the book is a recent review of the historical literature Ghosh researches for the Ibis Trilogy, including research that has appeared since he finished Flood of Fire in 2015. The breadth and scale of his immersion in this historical material is impressive and his translations of that research a pleasure to read, or for a retired high school teacher anyway. I often find vernacular speech in historical texts a big obstacle, laboriously stilted, but Ghosh finds ways to make pidgin sound musical and find poetic concision in bits of various foreign languages. But his review of the historical literature, including post-2015 work, grows into several polemics that I found fascinating. 

1. While the West's influence in India is overt and ideological, China's influence was embedded in everyday material practices and not the dominant political discourse. For example, Tea (Chai), Porcelain (Chinemati), Sugar (Cheeni), and Peanuts (Chinebadam), common everyday features of Indian life where Ghosh grew up. But in conversation China is typically a hostile neighbor or a closed society that the world hopes to open up like any other extractive colonial resource, like India had been, frequently reducing China to a degrading caricature. You cannot read an account of the Opium Wars without recognizing the deeply humiliating historical source of the CPC's fierce insistence on national independence or why this would have so much pull with China's people. Or why China would suspect Britain's and the West's intentions regarding their right to self-determination. China resists the coercive force of private global capital today because they bitterly remember being humiliated subjects of private global capital not all that long ago. But leaning so heavily on dominating export trade, as China is today, without also cultivating domestic demand and the living standards of their own working classes is bound to cost more and more over time in police state repressive measures. Presumably at some point simply increasing police state vigilance and AI surveillance will not be enough to quell bottom-up energies wanting better living conditions, the forces of Polanyi's democratic double-movements. See Foxconn worker suicides, etc. One of the headline stories about China over the last generation has been about how China's economic miracle has so radically reduced global poverty. But people's desires won't be satisfied forever with having barely escaped desperate poverty, of course. And the CPC knows this. This is practically a foundational cliche of elite panic in world history. To Malthus, feeding the poor, subsidizing them at all, only leads to sloth and idleness. The poor quit work as soon as they can, turning to drink and making babies they cannot feed. The CPC-- and market fundamentalists in the West like Malthus-- want to keep the working classes as close to bare subsistence survival as possible. Strong enough to work but not so strong and free that they might agitate for more; better wages, or better living conditions. More luxury consumer goods, more vacation and time off work, etc. Repressing these democratic energies costs a state a lot of money. Almost an axiom of the world history I know says the poor will put up with a lot of oppression and tyranny, astonishing amounts, but in the long run internal police state crackdowns are no more stable than the colonial and imperialist great power bullying that ended in world wars in the 20th century. Neither contributes to positive and peaceful cooperation and both almost always end in violent and cataclysmic confrontations in which a lot of people get hurt or killed.  

2. Opium might be the ultimate destructive sin good or natural predatory capitalist commodity? Ghosh makes the case, anyway. Tobacco, alcohol, sugar, processed foods, gambling, all tremendously popular, but are their impacts as bad as that of opium and the poppy? Maybe alcohol or gambling are rivals? Is there any other addictive drug more popular than those derived from the opiates extracted from the poppy plant? Opium, Morphine, Codeine, Heroin, Oxycodone? Ghosh claims no natural plant substance is more common in modern medicines, pharmaceuticals, than opiates. So popular that fentanyl is actually a synthetic lab creation of an opiate-like drug that promised to be less addictive than the natural plant opiate derivatives but turned out to be maybe more addictive. In mild and moderate forms opiates are a remarkably effective pain killer. To poor suffering Indian and Chinese physical laborers opium was virtually irresistible, enabling them to work longer hours despite their aggravating aches and pains. Consumed addictively its long-term effects are corrosive and withering, if not worse. Ghosh credits opium as being an "Agent of History" and attributes to it a natural power and force that humans imagine they can control but they cannot. Although, encouragingly, he points out that China was able to finally subdue the plague of opium addiction, not by penalizing addicts but by shutting down and strictly controlling its production. 

3. Ghosh calls Britain's Opium Wars a "model of the colonial Narco-state" and finds striking parallels with the opioid crisis in the modern US. The EIC forced mass cultivation of the poppy in India, via the Opium Dept, and funneled the drug to vulnerable populations in China, people facing brutal labor conditions and joblessness and chronic food insecurity. Similarly, the opioid epidemic in the modern US exploded in economically vulnerable conditions, rural areas, old mining towns and de-industrialized rust-belt regions of America. The EIC used gunboat diplomacy in the Opium Wars to force China to accept the drug trade and pay reparations when China attempted to ban it. The immense profits from the opium trade built great domestic fortunes in Britain and the US (Astors, Forbes, Roosevelts), fueling industrialization, and shaping Western institutions, while government officials and merchants looked the other way. In modern America, pharmaceutical giants like Purdue Pharma and the Sackler family replicated this playbook on a corporate scale, buying off regulators at the FDA, buying off doctors to push pills, and buying off lawmakers to protect their companies from legal consequences. When the opium trade devastated Chinese families, British and Western opium traders blamed the addicts, arguing that the Chinese were inherently degenerate, corrupt, or weak-natured, and that the opium traders were just meeting demand. Again, modern drug marketers and drug policies in the 1990s recycled this exact colonial template, stigmatizing addicts as sick and depraved and pinning the blame primarily on desperate consumers rather than the drug cartels and producers (visit relevant threads on the social media site Next Door sometime if you doubt this common blaming-the-addicts take). Ghosh sees in the modern opioid crisis a kind of blowback from the Opium Wars of the colonial Narco-states. The West treating poor Chinese workers with such contempt and disdain in the 19th c. boomerangs back on their own working classes, without, again, destroying the actual sources of the problem, predatory corporate interests; Purdue Pharma or the Sacklers, etc. 

Anyway, Ghosh argues the Opium Wars and the Opioid Crisis are textbook cases of predatory capitalism. I have great respect for Kenneth Pomeranz's book The Great Divergence, a big history book I wrote about here. His study proved in withering detail that the West did not achieve any great divergence before 1850, and wild claims that the West was in every way ascendent and dominant by 1492 or even earlier are nonsense. In terms of actual material living conditions, living standards, lifespans, luxury consumption, the West does not achieve any great divergence with the developed parts of the East, China, India, or Japan until 1850 or thereafter. But Pomeranz's failure to recognize the Opium Wars as pivotal and emblematic of this humiliating transition was I think a copout; like his snarky dismissal of historian Walter Rodney's evidence suggesting the slave trade and plantation economy subsidized the industrial revolution in Europe. Of course it fucking did. This is part of  common trend in US historiography to gloss over the industrial revolution, to omit the humanitarian crimes of predatory capitalism and imperialism in the 19th century, or sweep them under the rug as the necessary social costs of free market and capitalist progress. Ghosh's postcolonial historical fiction wants to pull back the rug and expose the grinding poverty and destruction of the colonial and imperialist enterprises, the bitter counterpoint to its centrifugal, multicultural, and modernizing effects.  

Footnotes:

1. Game of Thrones (2011-2019) and House of the Dragon (2022-2026). Let me state from the outset that this taste I have developed for historical fiction does have its downsides. I have a weakness for historical costume dramas, as mentioned. If a movie or TV series presents any reasonably believable vision of whatever historical period, has that gritty, convincing, realism I want, crave, I'm game. So I watched Game of Thrones. And now the House of the Dragon. I like their look and feel; some have called it "medieval realism." If nothing else, the series vividly realizes the extreme conditions of pre-modern social inequality (see my second note). The little people, they are repeatedly called, live in rags and squalor and hand to mouth. And the relentlessly plotting and scheming of the royal courts, dynastic families and their hired Hands, the center of nearly all the action, is a deadly game of thrones, of incest and fratricide, to secure succession and power. This is a near universal feature of ancient kingdoms and monarchies, as far as I know the history. And I like the way they compress the wider world around Westeros (the British Isles) with touches of fantasy. Martin's Wall holding back the northern menace. Dragons that operate like WMD's, devastating populations with something like Byzantine "Greek Fire." But I have my limits with the fantasy stuff as well. I found the Ice Zombies in the original series tedious real fast. And by the end of this series the political dynamics were so reductively predictable. A royal female heir wants to bring peace and spread prosperity to the kingdom, realizing the dreams of a benevolent dead king ancestor, but the always nearly psychotic ambitions of other possible heirs, mostly men, of course, drive the queen in the end to firebomb the people with dragons. Subduing the kingdom by destroying its people. Again. This was the brutal turn of the last season of the original series. And now the House of the Dragon, a prequel, repeats the formula, as if to say this is how it always goes: Monarchal rule for peace and prosperity is always undermined by the cutthroat and brutal game of thrones over royal succession, by patriarchal gender norms and psychotic power mad men. Probably not all that far from the truth but drearily predictable and all the contenders to the throne in House of the Dragon are grotesque caricatures. I was hardly paying attention by the end. The prequel was mercifully only three seasons, compared to the original's eight seasons, but I still think a bit of a let down. 

2. This reminds me of French world historian Fernand Braudel's book, The Structures of Everyday Life: Civilization and Capitalism, 15th-18th Century. Again, in withering detail, Braudel makes the case that the everyday life of 93-95% of people in the early modern period (1450-1750) living within reach of a city or town, urban agricultural civilization (he piles on the evidence from Europe but adds case examples from places like China and India and Japan as well), are laboring peasants living off gruel and what hardscrabble social life they can hang onto in grindingly impoverished conditions. No wonder then the democratic revolutions of the 18th century, American and French, are such a radical break in world history. Not so much in generating any immediate change to those miserable material conditions-- Piketty laments in one of his books that 100 years after the French Revolution much of the wealth in France was still concentrated in the top 5-7% of the population-- but because the liberal promises of the progressive era go back to the democratic revolutions. One of Piketty's big points is progressive policy change in governments take off in the late 19th century (social insurance, income taxes, antitrust, etc) long before the cataclysm of the world wars in the 20th c, as some historians argue was necessary prelude to significant progressive change, and a long time before the New Deal 1930s. Anyway, the rhetoric that fuels those progressive policy claims, the liberal promises to the 93-95% that began to gain traction in the late 19th century were rooted in the democratic revolutions of the 18th century. Or you could argue they go back to the Enlightenment writers in the 17th century but the democratic revolutions turned their words and academic claptrap into a political cause and movements for liberal democratic individual rights and equal legal protections, self-determination, national sovereignty, and a system of laws protecting human rights and freedoms, that have inspired liberal political movements ever since. And, unfortunately, also inspired a conservative reaction as well, blood and soil, racist bigot reaction opposed to extending liberal rights protections to poor immigrants, minorities, women, or even workers. Anybody they don't like, basically.    


Musical Coda: Up there with Ravi Shankar as my favorite Indian or South Asian music artist. Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan, Pakistani, musician, singer, composer, most associated with a style of Sufi Islamic devotional music but was also master of Hindustani classical music. Kinetic beats, cycling mantric chanting vocal intensity, harmoniums, long build ups and ecstatic drum circle like peaks. Huge influence on South Asian popular music. He got big in global world music circles when he recorded some albums for Peter Gabriel's Real World Records beginning in 1989. He was a resident scholar in the musicology department at the University of Washington in 1993 and 1994. He makes global dance music with an unparalleled spiritual intensity, and the kind of cultural mixing energies always a part of the South Asian experience and evoked by the Ibis Trilogy.

The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower, By Michael Pillsbury (2015)

    Finishing up my round-up of books about the recent rise of China I couldn’t help but notice my glaring neglect of more Hawkish books. What are the arguments China hawks make for "decoupling" with China or for taking a tougher military position against China? This is hardly a new blind-spot for me. I’m one of those people who gets mocked for only engaging with social media at all on liberal echo-chambers like Bluesky. Back in the day I would on occasion try Bill O’Reilly or some other loud popular conservative crank straight but always bitterly choked on the stuff before watching a whole show or episode. The truth was I could only process and digest the conservative doggerel of Fox News through the mocking filter of the Daily Show or Colbert Report. And my liberal snowflake tendencies haven’t changed much, I’m afraid. But I haven’t entirely given up trying to gird myself up on occasion to reading a popular book revered by the Hawks or “conservatives” or any of the paranoid style on the right. (1) The subtexts of the books Chip War and Apple in China in my rise-of-China round-up were somewhat Hawkish on China but not militantly or stridently hostile to China. What is then the China hawks’ favorite book on China? 

In the foreign policy establishment anyway, this book appears to be one of them: The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower (2015). The author, Michael Pillsbury, is a longtime American foreign policy strategist, goes way back to the Nixon era and still has the ears of the current regime and its agents in foreign policy. Trump named Pillsbury chair of the Defense Policy Board in 2020. The Stanford and Columbia graduate has spent years in China, speaks Mandarin, and for over the last half century has worked in that strange intersection between foreign policy research and national security intelligence operations. He’s not Indiana Jones but he might like thinking of himself as something like that. He has worked for the Department of Defense, the Pentagon, think tank outfits like the RAND Corporation, served as a close advisor to Reagan, and then worked as a Senate staffer for years before ending up at the Heritage Foundation, where, yes, he contributed to the monstrously inhumanitarian Project 2025. (2) Pillsbury appears to be the indisputable senior chair of the “China-hawks” in the US government at the present time, or close enough for my purposes anyway.

The argument in the 100-Year Marathon can be summarized in a few notes about the full title of the book. The century referred to begins with the Chinese communist revolution in 1949, establishing the People’s Republic of China and the rule of the Communist Party of China (CPC), and is supposed to end in 2049, by which time the CPC and China will have overtaken the US as the global superpower. Or in the nomenclature of foreign policy strategists like Pillsbury, China will have become the “hegemon,” a dominant leader exercising overwhelming authority over others in a group; or as discussed in Sun Tzu’s The Art of War (TAoW), the ancient Chinese text Pillsbury’s analysis leans on, ‘Ba,’ or lord or overlord. To Pillsbury, China, or the CPC, an aggressive nationalist cult, is plotting to overthrow the US as the world’s supreme superpower and their ambitions are revealed in the teachings of China’s ancient text TAoW. 

The “secret” part in the subtitle appears to be rooted in the galling personal experience of Pillsbury representing the US in diplomatic negotiations with China for over the last half a century. Pillsbury’s origin story in US-China foreign policy is almost too strange but true and on the nose. He is literally the guy who wrote the policy paper that began US military ties with communist China in the 1970s. The first such ties with China since the 1945-1949 civil war (when the US sided against the CPC and against communist China, we should hasten to note and underline). The culmination of this new post-Nixon in China link was the production of weapons in China that supported US counterinsurgency against Russia in Afghanistan in the ‘80s (and helped launch the terrorist group behind the attacks of September 11, 2001, al-Queda, let's also note). At the time, after decades of global cold war violence and proxy armed struggles, splitting Sino-Soviet relations felt like a foreign policy (and counterintelligence) coup and the thing to do. Pillsbury is essentially the author of the “China card” in Cold War era global geopolitics. 

But since those heady optimistic times in US-China covert military relations, Pillsbury has come to regard China’s “Reform and Opening Up” campaign that began with Nixon in China in 1972 as a big ruse. A cover up of covert strategies China was pursuing against the US from the beginning. China’s real strategy all along, according to Pillsbury, has been deeply and aggressively imperialist. And we can tell this because it is rooted in a Hawkish nationalist reading of China’s ancient Warring States period and the foreign policy strategies espoused in TAoW, a book widely recognized today as a classic text in foreign policy and military history. 

A big chunk of Pillsbury’s 100-Year Marathon book is revisionist history of US-China relations since Nixon went to China in 1972. For starters, Pillsbury asserts that Nixon’s historic visit to China wasn’t on Nixon’s initiative but the launch of a Chinese scheme to lure the US into giving China all its modernizing technologies. Other historical accounts refute this take on the timing alone by noting that in known records and documents of that time Nixon was talking openly about wanting to improve relations and increase trade with mainland China several years before Mao or anybody in the CPC was saying anything about meeting up with the US. But Pillsbury, whose primary interlocutors in China were Hawkish members of the CPC’s foreign policy and military establishment, knows better. (3)  

Likewise, Deng Xioping’s visit to the US in 1978 wasn’t really about any “Reform and Opening Up” in China at all, as was propagandized in conventional accounts. Instead, in keeping with the teachings in TAoW, applying the idea of ‘Shi,’ which translates roughly as “potential born of disposition” or “strategic advantage.” Basically, "Shi" means applying vigilant analysis and awareness of the ever-changing configuration of power between combatants (or warring states) to achieve national security and/or strategic preeminence. Rather than benevolent exchanges in trade and education, Deng and China were lulling the US into sympathy for China’s benign weaknesses so as to extract from the US its strengths: Most crucially, technological and military strengths. 

According to Pillsbury, China is using the ancient Chinese strategies of TAoW, written over 2000 years ago in China’s foundational period known as the Warring States, to subdue and dominate the US. In TAoW, in any contest, you make assessments and judgments about the strengths and weaknesses of your opponents before going to war with them. In preparation for battle you attempt to acquire your enemies’ strengths and figure out how to exploit their weaknesses. In Deng’s “Reform and Opening Up” campaign, Pillsbury argues, China was trying to acquire the US’s technological and military strengths by convincing the US that China was no threat but merely wanted the US to help modernize China with education and technology in exchange for more US trade with China, which was in fact more or less Deng’s headline case when he visited the US in 1978.  

To Pillsbury, the Tiananmen Square protests and crackdown in 1989, resulting in the deaths of “hundreds if not thousands” of Chinese protesters (says Amnesty International), was the decisive baring of China’s savage TAoW teeth, asserting the CPC's military supremacy, in China's 100-Year Marathon strategy for world domination. For Pillsbury all pretenses and chances for real reform and/or an opening up in China are snuffed out in that violent crackdown on the world stage. Subsequent history in China is marked exclusively by the strict suppression of dissent, more crackdowns on any criticism of the CPC, and aggressive military opposition to anything perceived as an independence movement within and increasingly even outside its borders (Tibet, Uyghurs in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan), including extensive spy craft and espionage operations against the US.  

All true as far as it goes or from what I know anyway, and acknowledging upfront that I'm certain there's all kinds of spycraft and cyber warfare stuff going on all the time between the US and China and other states that I have no idea about. Didn't Wikileaks expose this to all the world, if nothing else? But an easy case can be made that the conservative hostility in China to any perceived threats to the CPC’s supreme authority, and especially disregard for basic human rights in China, hardly started or ended with Tiananmen. The death toll from the Cultural Revolution sweeping China still at the time of Nixon in China, 1972, was many times greater than any death toll attributable to Tiananmen Square or any other related Chinese state violence in 1989.  

Many historians attribute the paranoid extremes of the violent crackdown at Tiananmen to CPC fear and elite panic about ruling communist parties in Eastern Europe, with whom the CPC maintained close diplomatic ties, facing mass street protests and rebellions beginning in 1989. Protesting students in Tiananmen were there for a host of reasons (for one, getting rid of members of the Hawkish old guard many still associated with the violence and intolerance of the cultural revolution) but the CPC leadership under Deng became convinced that over a half million protesters in Tiananmen were a grave threat to CPC rule, like the street revolutions breaking up the Soviet Union that very same year. 

Seeing their communist comrade states go down to popular democratic street rebellions was scary and alarming to the CPC. Tiananmen was a police state crackdown, paranoid and brutal in its disregard for human rights, to be sure, but hardly any kind of decisive political verdict on China’s 1980-2020 “Reform and Opening Up” period. 

Consider just China’s foreign trade alone. Combined imports and exports with China have grown from about $38 billion in 1980 to over $4.6 trillion in 2020. Can there be any more dramatic evidence of China’s “Opening Up” in trade with other countries than that? China’s government, the CPC, are terrible human rights abusers and hostile to democratic human rights and freedoms, but the RaOU campaign in China that Pillsbury is now trying to expose as a sinister plot, let’s note, was clearly killing and ruining fewer lives, by several magnitudes, than China was before the “Reform and Opening Up” policies began. Isn't this significant evidence of reform in China brought about by the RaOU campaign?  

Let’s also note that Tiananmen, 1990-ish, also happens to be when China’s economic growth rates really begin to take off; regularly exceeding annual growth rates of over 10%. In the work of economists Isabella Weber and Yuen Yuen Ang, whose books I discussed in my round-up, we learn that the CPC asserting its sovereign power over the economy in China in the 1980s helped China avoid neoliberal shock therapy and the poverty traps of global private capital, the IMF/WB, SAP loans, all that. The evidence in these two accounts illustrate that the assertion of CPC political sovereignty over the private economy, especially this intersection of domestic Chinese businesses with foreign private capital (SEZs, SOEs, restrictions on the flows of foreign private capital in and out of the country), fundamentally and significantly contributed to China’s economic miracle between 1978 and 2020. 

So, again, China’s resistance to the economic reforms of global private capital and the conventional rules of the WTO, privatization and hostility to government regulations on business, may be associated temporally with murderous state violence of Tiananmen but China’s RaOU policies are also directly related to how China breaks with the pattern of dependency theory in international economic development and becomes the burgeoning global economic juggernaut that it has now become. Global free marketeers are embittered by this turn of events but that doesn’t make it any less so.  

For one, it’s why everyone is talking about China’s “political capitalism” now; China’s state directed capitalism, or industrial policy, a dirty phrase in mainstream economics circles in the US only a short time ago, if not still. We’re talking about this stuff because of the immensity of China’s economic growth miracle since 1978, what is called the China shock, and how the “Reform and Opening Up” campaign launched that miracle. The RaOU launched an industrial revolution in China at a scale, more than 1.4 billion people in China, the world has not experienced before; after two or three centuries of industrial revolutions. It’s by no means entirely clear yet the full impact of the China shock but the economic implications appear stunning and potentially revolutionary. 

China has now taken over the global green energy tech market, cranking out consumer friendly solar panels and batteries and super cheap EVs-- a company known as BYD (Build Your Dreams) already turning out the VW Bug’s of EVs. And China is producing this stuff at prices and scales with which the big private multinationals can’t compete. Meanwhile, Big Tech in the US is peddling AI and crypto and a techno utopia of automated AI Singularity. Private broligarchs are promising to liberate us all from labor and toil when they already can’t pay their workers living wages or get along with labor unions and refuse to pay their fair share in taxes and for essential government services. To private multinationals in the US all taxes or regulations are govt “waste, fraud, and abuse”; and every problem in govt is a spending problem. So, meanwhile, China, or the CPC dictatorship in China, launches the global green energy transition. Building the green tech innovations the world needs, technology responding to climate change and real world human demands for decarbonizing global emissions. Building green energy solutions that let’s remember were dismissed as too expensive to produce profitably in the rest of the private global economy as recently as 2010, and still now is being directly attacked by the petrostate regime running the US. It is a situation that is at the very least calling into the question the global leadership of private capital and wealth. 

But from Tiananmen onward, for Pillsbury, China’s goals are exclusively imperialistic and aggressive: stealing US intellectual property rights, taking over islands in the South China Sea, launching the “Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).” Again, as far as it goes this stuff is all undeniable. But already dating Pillsbury’s account, he goes on to specifically pillory China’s opposition to environmental reforms and international climate treaties like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement to combat climate change and global warming. We know now, however, China has since shot far ahead in manufacturing and high-tech production for a global green energy transition, or certainly at least in the production and global distribution of solar panels, batteries, and EVs. Meanwhile, the regime Pillsbury apparently councils is trying to bring back coal.

Maybe the weirdest part of this book is that I’m pretty sure the nefarious foreign policy cold war strategizing and spy craft stuff, basically, known as counterintelligence, that Pillsbury accuses and condemns China for is in reality more or less the standard operating procedures of every national security state on the planet, or for all the ones rich enough to afford to play in the global superpower game anyway. I would assume DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) and like national security organizations in and US and elsewhere are constantly gaming out perceived threats from China and Russia or whoever. Again, if nothing else, didn’t Wikileaks show us that secret intelligence work goes on extensively between even traditional allies, let alone bitter rivals? This is deterrence theory in practice: States assessing the military strength of enemies and deterring foreign aggression; using military and non-military means to deter enemies from attacking you. Global militaries and national security intelligence operations are constantly gaming out this stuff and have been engaging in aggressive counterintelligence and Hawkish operations like this since at least WW2. (4)  

At any rate, Pillsbury appears to have been really triggered by this book that came out in China in 1999 called Unrestricted Warfare. I would prefer very “restricted” warfare myself, for sure, so not a promising title, I admit. In this book, written by a couple Chinese military colonels, the authors reportedly argue China’s “inferior military” can defeat the US’s “superior military” by non-military covert means, financial manipulation, cyber warfare, terrorism, media manipulation, and international legal maneuvers. Again, all bad stuff, certainly not the conduct of friendly trade relations, and I'm hoping the US is always doing counterintelligence work to deter and/or expose and prosecute the worst nonmilitary attacks on the US or any of the US's allies. According to Pillsbury, the UW book is very influential in the CPC and most damningly exposes China’s “Reform and Opening Up” campaign as a cover for their far more sinister designs against the US. 

But for all the Hawkish saber-rattling, though, the list of remedies at the end of the book is relatively anodyne or irrelevant. Pillsbury thinks we should stop assuming China will become more like the West, or we should stop believing that more trade with China will produce more democracy and human rights in China. Okay, that hope in US-China relations did not pan out, for sure. And, yeah, the US and multinationals working in China ought to protest and attempt to reform human rights abuses against minorities and prison labor conditions in China; while also more actively supporting workers and minorities better at home, let's stipulate. But I still think that old canard about more peaceful trade nurturing mutually prosperous relations between nations and states is basically right and fitting here.  

Pillsbury argues for more strategic thinking in our economic and technological relations with China. Maybe not unlike the case Chris Miller presents in his 2022 book Chip War. No doubt about it the US shouldn’t be dependent on Taiwan to produce computer chips essential to the US’s national security--up to 80% of such chips, reported Miller-- when China insists, regularly, and with increasing belligerence, that Taiwan is its sovereign territorial possession. Pillsbury is right to raise the alarm about compromising national security positions with China. And it is concerning how long it took before the Pentagon and US foreign policy establishment and a US POTUS, let's add (old man Biden strikes again!), figured this national security concern out. It seems like someone should have been calling this out some time ago. But the high-tech guys, and especially Apple, were making too much money in China and off China’s cheap factory labor conditions to worry about giving away tech secrets and national security know-how to China.  

Anyway, in retrospect Pillsbury deserves some credit for raising the issue. But Pillsbury’s biggest recommendation, ultimately, is that we should stop thinking of China as a future ally and trade partner altogether and instead treat China as a “long-term strategic competitor.” Again, okay, but why does it have to be one or the other? Why not US-China “trade partners” and “long-term strategic competitors,” with some long-term hopes that expanding peaceful trade alliances wins out over WW3!? 

Seems to me a fundamental weakness of the China hawk position is its exclusive insistence on an either/or and Us/Them conflict. For the China hawk, US-China relations are entirely zero-sum and always have to end in decisive conflict. They must. It can’t be any other way. Encouragingly, recent US-China talks, Xi Jinping and Trump, have actually moved the official diplomatic language away from only “strategic competitors” back to something like “stable” trading partners. Maybe Pillsbury contributed to this moderation in US-China diplomatic relations but he'd still probably insist that the ultimate goal of China's 100-Year Marathon remains winning world supremacy over the US.  

The weirdest part of Pillsbury’s historical analysis of the TAoW is how he seems to ignore completely the book's central thesis: ‘Shi’ as a kind of deterrence theory aimed at winning without fighting, or at the very least vigilantly minimizing violent combat. 

Pillsbury encourages readers to consider the deep history of Chinese nationalist thinking but his own reading of that history, the Warring States period, and especially TAoW, strikes me as a little narrow and one-dimensional. TAoW is in fact a widely read book and praised by numerous US military officials and appears to be almost universally recognized as a classic text by military leaders and national security professionals around the world, far beyond China. WW2 era General MacArthur, reportedly, always kept a copy of TAoW on his desk. 

The ancient book, it has only been semi-recently discovered by scholars, is almost certainly a composite of the writings of two authors and possibly more from the Warring States period in China, 5th to 3rd centuries bce. I’ve not studied the book but according to Wikipedia the overall perspective of TAoW on combat and war is simple and straight-forward: War is hell. War and combat are costly to both winners and losers and frequently devastating to bystanders and non-combatant civilians; always exacting excessive collateral damage on local populations. TAoW urges careful consideration and preparation be given to “Shi,” or the configuration of power, the arrangements of allies and adversaries, that exists prior to engaging in war or military combat. TAoW explains how to use diplomacy (including lots of psychology) and economics to keep military combat brief, affordable, and limit the terrible destruction of wars. TAoW stresses the importance of secret intelligence gathering and espionage to prevent or minimize actual military combat. The unifying theory of TAoW is essentially winning without fighting or in more practical terms, winning with the very least violent military destructive costs. 

TAoW is ancient classical era expression of deterrence theory, basically, or the civilizing mission of resolving social conflicts without violence. TAoW’s prime directive is developing military and foreign policy strategies aimed at preventing or reducing actual war and combat. It reminds me of Aristotle’s quip, "It is not enough to win a war; it is more important to organize the peace." It’s a recognition, an ancient Realpolitiks of a sorts, that winning at all costs can make peace impossible; and that the aim of peaceful authority is resolving social conflicts without war and violence. I hear in TAoW echoes of Machiavelli’s discussions of republican, military deterrence and balancing forces in power; and whose ideas in return overlap with famous Warring State's era Legalist philosopher and statesman, Han Fei. TAoW’s emphasis is on winning without fighting because war is bad for everybody. Sounds civilized to me. 

By contrast, in Clausewitz’s On War, a revered Western book on war (again, bless you Wikipedia), and closer to the focus on achieving military supremacy that we find in Pillsbury, the primary directive is to dominate militarily your enemy. To win decisively: including in our own time devastating bombing campaigns, occupations, regime changes, and a long list of military domination strategies that always seem to end, or at least since WW2, in indecisive quagmires with “No End in Sight,” or am I wrong to conclude so much? And even given all these bitterly violent military stalemates in recent times, Clausewitz forcefully stipulated that military combat strategies should always remain subordinate to political authorities, who we can hope might engage in some of the non-military strategies of deterrence emphasized in TAoW.  

In Unrestricted Warfare, the Chinese Hawk book that so alarmed Pillsbury, the case is made that by using non-military counterintelligence spy craft and espionage, China’s inferior military weapons buildup can defeat the US. Okay, if China is plotting to defeat the US wouldn’t we prefer that China plot against us by nonmilitary means rather than by more doomsday arm's race scenarios?! Again, all modern states spend lots of money on national security counterintelligence. States will always and probably have always engaged in secret counterintelligence operations to assess and deter the threats of other competing states, laws and enforcement against their worst human atrocities is all we got. Pillsbury’s “China card” is a legendary win in the world of cold war counterintelligence. (4) The best-case scenario for us mere civilians are laws, national and international, that limit the human rights abuses of global counterintelligence operations, the killing and ruining of noncombatant civilian lives. 

At any rate, getting more into the history, I’m also not sure TAoW or the historical context of the Warring States period in China, 475 to 221 bce, really makes a very good argument for achieving overwhelming military hegemony or ‘Ba’. I thought China’s RaOU economists finding evidence in ancient “Discourses on Salt and Iron,” from the early Han Dynasty (81 bce), establishing the essential role of the state in stabilizing prices in the economy was brilliant economic history. Crucial to China escaping neoliberal economic shock therapy in the 1980s. But this case for a great ‘Ba’ or military ruler unifying China’s Warring States, a war to end all wars, is mostly legend and not very convincing. 

There were seven warring states in the traditional heartland of China in the Warring States period; basically, the last long war-ravaged period of the Zhou dynasty that had ruled China since 1046 bce. First, valuable to rememeber, that there were in fact two more long Chinese ruling dynasties, Shang and Xia, stretching back to 2070 bce or a millennium and a half before the Warring States. The TAoW and Warring States are more a cultural hinge in Chinese history than an actual military or economic or even political turning point. 

The state that prevailed at the end of the long Warring States period, the Qin, from which China takes its name, was so brutal that its rule lasted only 15 years. Qin Shi Huang, China’s so-called first Emperor (unlike the nearly two millennia of mere ‘kings’ that preceded him), is said to have burned books and buried alive hundreds of scholars he considered opposition to his supreme authority. Qin Shi wanted to live forever and was incredibly paranoid (so paranoid he had constructed a life-size army of 8,000 soldiers to guard over him through eternity) and he likely killed himself taking “immortality elixirs” laced with mercury. This is China’s foundational model for a great “Ba” or supreme leader? To say the least, Qin She Huang was shall we say not very into TAoW’s civilizing means of winning without fighting. 

No doubt Qin Shi does take some important first steps in solidifying China’s cultural identity, however. First, he tears down walls and fortifications dividing the warring states and starts building walls and fortifications along the northern border frontier of China. The walls never do entirely keep out the horseback riding nomads and raiders to the north of China, the biggest foreign menace to China until the 19th century—for nearly 4000 years!-- but the Great Wall does start drawing the cultural boundaries of China on the map. And Qin She Huang also standardizes weights and measures, expanding commerce throughout the realms of China, increasing peaceful contacts between formerly warring states.

Nonetheless, Shi Huang’s unification of China hardly represents an end to warring states in China. His ‘Ba’ and imperial dynasty barely lasted a generation. To be sure, centralized imperial history after Qin rule is certainly long and impressive. After the Qin, the Han rule for over four centuries (202bce-220ce), Sui (581-618), Tang (618-907), Song (960-1279), Ming (1368-1644), Qing (1644-1912). The only state with any sustained centralized authority lasting anywhere near as long as China’s two (or four) thousands years was Egypt and that was more or less over before the common era and the Christian calendar even began. Still, my point, if you count all the gaps in China's imperial dynastic date ranges it adds up to over a quarter of the last two millennia in which the territorial heartland of China has been divided into warring states or multiple kingdoms; three kingdoms, sometimes five, ten, even as many as sixteen. The Qin dynasty did not end warring states division in China. (5)

And if you look a little closer even the unity of several of the big states in China’s imperial history starts to break down. Peasant rebellions seem to pop up in Chinese history every generation or two. Halfway through the truly foundational Han Dynasty a 14-15 year-long rebellion based on peasant land reform pressures takes over. Halfway through Song rule, an imperial state whose astonishing urban revolution helped launch modern globalization around the beginning of the second millennium, the capital was moved from the north to the south of China, fleeing hostility from the Jin Dynasty, another semi-nomadic horseback riding people, the Jurchen, menacing China from the northern steppes. As I’ve pointed out before, two of China’s greatest imperial states, the Yuan and the Qing, over 350 years of China’s last millennium, were under foreign control. Add this stuff to the 100-years of humiliation that preceded the CPC’s national independence victory in 1949 and the CPC’s paranoid nationalism starts to make a little more sense. But neither the Qin, or TAoW, or the classical Warring States seem to make a very strong case for achieving lasting Ba or resolving warring state conflicts militarily. 

To the contrary, what TAoW and the best high school world history accounts show instead is that China’s great centralized imperial history, its longevity, its collapse and continuing revival, owes more to winning without fighting, or winning by non-military means. Via centralized administration and a large civil service of government workers, building unifying public works and absorbing cultural differences with social organizing efficiencies. When the Mongols and Manchus take over China they make some changes, additions, but they end up mostly adopting China’s cultural traditions. The most important idea in TAoW, Shi, which Pillsbury leans on so heavily in his book, makes a weak case for achieving and sustaining military domination. TAoW’s best case as foreign policy and deterrence theory is ultimately about winning without fighting. Winning by non-military means, or via successful public administration. (6)

Pillsbury interestingly digs into the Social Darwinist-- i.e., survival of the fittest-- roots of the CPC and the ruling communist party in China. I’ve ran into this before. Social Darwinist thinking was big with Mao and his communist leadership comrades in the 1920s and 1930s. Overcoming foreign domination in China was a survival of the fittest contest to China’s communist revolutionaries. Undoubtably, this has lent a militarist top-down authoritarian style that has persisted in the CPC ever since. And which is also essentially Marxist-Lenninist, let's add, always trying to crack down on counter-revolutionary elements in society. But Pillsbury seems oblivious to the fact that Social Darwinism looms large in the perspective of American China hawks and the conservative movement and paranoid style in America. What is the China hawk position after all if not zero-sum, win/lose, everything is competition and combat and survival of the fittest Social Darwinism? I enjoyed Richard Hofstadter’s book, Social Darwinism in American Thought (1944), but his conclusion that Social Darwinism had been largely debunked in academic circles by the 1890s (and William James), while maybe true in Ivy League, seemed to vastly undervalue the animating staying power of Social Darwinist thinking amongst business elites and local Chamber of Commerce conservatives in every local community. 

By any measure Social Darwinism remains a major force in rationalizing predatory business practices to this day. What was Zuckerberg talking about in the ’24 election season when he called for more “masculine energies” and a celebration of aggressive business practices? The whole "Vibes Shift" thing during the election was a fuck the rules and regulations, or fuck others, Lina khan, competitors, workers, even consumers, fuck "empathy," let's takeover with our Manosphere-maxxing bigotry and make money. This is Musk’s recent Makers and Takers talk as well. It’s Social Darwinist, survival of the fittest, doggerel, distilled for our times. The billionaire identifying himself as the fittest and the unfit his enemies. It really goes back to the very roots of modern capitalism in Malthus, early 19th century, showing sneering contempt for poor low wage workers or in the parlance today: NPCs (non-player characters, a gamer reference for characters that don’t matter, don’t count for anything). The unfit are unproductive, Takers, peasant idlers, Musk's "woke mind virus"-addled critics, they're all Takers. By contrast, Malthus' proto-capitalists or Captains of Industry and Musk are Makers. The broligarchs are the Makers, job creators, builders of empires, and only the Social Darwinist strong survive. (7)

I’ve no doubt China could have something like a 100-year plan to achieve global power and preeminence. Deng was always talking about big long-term plans, although the ones I’ve seen tended to be made up mostly of macroeconomic goals. Anyway, five-year plans were a staple of states in the communist world in the 20th century. The 100-Year Marathon sounds like a grand secret plan of Marxist historical materialism, a century long scheme to take over the world and deliver the scientific socialist paradise. But come on there is no paradise without some basic respect for human rights and freedoms. And better they pursue their Social Darwinist ambitions by nonmilitary rather than by military means, right? (7)

Pillsbury is right that China is a paranoid nationalist state, obsessed with the independence of China and the supremacy of the CPC as the rightful sovereign guardians of that independence. And China routinely disregards the basic human rights of its citizens with surveillance and armed force; and bullies its neighbors, etc. Deterring China from attacking the US militarily, making it too risky and costly for China to attack the US militarily, especially when China is four or five times bigger than the US in population, will remain an important preoccupation of US military defense for the foreseeable future. 

But the China hawks are always going to be fighting the Cold War with China and urging the US to get tougher with China. The better Hawk case then Pillsbury's 100-Year Marathon would have detailed more luridly some of China’s terrorism and espionage against the US. I’m sure there probably is some going on all the time. I’m just saying it might be wiser if in addition to all the saber-rattling, it might be wiser if the US gave more consideration to the actual teachings of TAoW and the principals of winning without fighting and thinking about ways soft power and win-win peaceful trade with China might improve relations and avoid the necessity or inevitability of armed conflict with China and WW3.  

 Notes:

(1) My point is that I'm very grateful for the journalists and scholars who do directly engage with the paranoid style on the right; who investigate and report on the bigot grievance ideology and propaganda machine of the rightwing. Their work are dispatches from the front in a long terrible war against the enlightenment and include many of my very favorite history books about the modern period. I really do want to know what the paranoid style on the right are thinking and doing. I’d just also rather avoid any personal contact with them. Including holiday family meals, for sure, but even crossing the street when you see a red MAGA hat coming. At this point, I view all scoffing attacks on immigrants, people of color, DEI, Muslims, socialists, and LGBTQ+, the whole anti-woke mind virus, as as a crude intellectual force field defending the violent fascist reaction in power. The ICE stuff is fascist police state violence. Trump threatens and authorizes violence against anyone that opposes him. Not okay.  

(2) Whatever exactly the Defense Policy Board is? Another secret panel in the bowels of the deep state? It’s either the liberal rule of law deep state (with its many flaws, to be sure) or the fascist dictator police-state crackdown deep state. The civil war is already on and the paranoid right’s causes, segregation, strict hierarchy, ethnic cleansing, and violently dominating other cultures or really anything or anybody that opposes their rule is war-all-the-time insanity. Humans want independence and freedom, it’s only human nature, but whatever independence and freedom we achieve will always still be in a world we share (or refuse to share) with others. 'E Pluribus Unum.' Also, Project 2025 appears to me the biggest radical experiment in neoliberal economic shock therapy of them all. Way bigger than Chile in the '70s or Russia in the '90s. I've seen little reporting about this angle so far on Trump 2. Just saying.  

(3) I don't doubt Hawkish sentiments rule the CPC or at minimum provide very close council to XiJinping. The primary source literature of China’s political history was mostly produced by officially sanctioned imperial state historians. A central task of a new dynasty was to justify the loss of the Mandate of Heaven in the fallen dynasty and to legitimize the just rule of the new emperor in the terms of the Mandate of Heaven. Many simple inventions in China’s history, silk, porcelain, mortar and pestle, wheelbarrow, inventions that almost certainly emerged from the work of peasants, are routinely attributed to the mythic benevolence of some local lord or prince. Behind the scenes, there were often bitter factional disputes between Confucian and Buddhist scholars, Confucian and Eunuch government officials, on and on. But most of China's historical scholarship was written by government officials, written by the winners, and reflects that class bias. Not to mention the language barriers that makes just tracking the names for people and things in China difficult for non-native speakers like me. Pillsbury’s fluency in Mandarin and many years in the country give his account more credibility. But his handling of the concepts in TAoW seems so shallow and manipulative. 

(4) My first reactions to books like Tim Weiner’s Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA (2007) or, more recently, Vincent Bevin’s The Jarkarta Method (2020), were something like OMG, drunken untreated-PTSD combat guys doing “intelligence,” getting off on killing “communists,” who way more often than not turn out to be democratically elected socialists, or nationalist independence leaders or just poor farmers and union workers trying to scratch out a decent life. The number of grotesque humanitarian crimes in the name of Cold War anticommunism is staggering and shameful. I’m not saying there weren’t any bad communists or communist police state dictatorships out there attempting to sabotage and/or weaken the US, or that there doesn't then by necessity have to be US counterintelligence to check these efforts, but what is most striking in any review of US cold war counterintelligence history is how often they were propping up military dictatorships guilty of terrible murders and human right abuses. Another striking detail in Legacy of Ashes that stays with me is how, already by the 1950s, Eisenhower was expressing deep regrets about the way the CIA was setup after WW2, built mostly out of retired covert military operations and not more out of language and cultural intelligence professionals. The history of the CIA counterintelligence is pockmarked by savagely bungled military operations.  

(5) Some lists of China’s great centralized imperial states don’t count the Sui. I’m assuming because it’s relatively short-lived, although still over twice as long as the first imperial Qin Dynasty. My case for the Sui is that they built the grand canal, expanding connections between north and south China. Southern China would go on to become the most populous region of China. And the Sui turned the civil service system that the Han started into a meritocratic national examination system. Again, these are key developments in China’s (winning without fighting) centralizing administrative authority. Also, Romance of the Three Kingdoms is a celebrated 14th century historical novel about the disunity in China at the end of the Han Dynasty, 184-280, as documented in Chinese historian and politician Chen Shou’s Records of the Three Kingdoms written in the 3rd century. John Woo, director famous for Hong Kong action flicks, made an epic movie history of this period, Red Cliff, that fudges several of the historical particulars but does include a large dose of the kind of Asian philosophy you find in TAoW and, presumably, Romance of the Three Kingdoms. 

(6) We’ve pulled back a little from the nuclear doomsday scenarios of the Atomic Age but Mutually Assured Destruction or MAD in WMDs and weapons stockpiles still drives military defense budgets and military deterrence. The key to MAD and deterrence theory is to deter China or any other potentially hostile states from attacking the US and of course counterintelligence will always be a crucial part of this work. The US Intelligence Community “officially” consists of 18 agencies and organizations that oversee national security and intelligence operations. Heaven knows counterintelligence work gets into all kinds of humanitarian abuses and assassinations and whatever other murderous skullduggery but the basic national security task is simple enough: defend the country from foreign threats. Deter our enemies from attacking us, or make it too costly and risky in human lives for them to attack us. The goal is to prevent war, not increase the chances of war. 

(7) My principal gripe with the utopian fantasies of elites is how they're always demanding so many sacrifices from poor working people without ever delivering on their promises. Always demanding a little bit more austerity and sacrifice to reach a promised land that remains forever out of reach. The CPC is guilty of this but hardly has a monopoly on this kind of hypocrisy and disregard for the rights of common workers and everyday people, I'm afraid. Anybody that believes that the AI singularity is going to liberate us all from ever having to work again is being silly, if not worse. At the very least, that China appears to be committed to fulfilling their goal of achieving world supremacy primarily by nonmilitary means strikes me as mildly encouraging prospect for the future of geopolitics and world peace.

Hot Tub Time Machine

 

"Old Guy," Wimps (2015): Kill Rock Stars. House party in a rec room bar; mustachioed and non-mustachioed peoples strutting their stuff. Old time rock&roll as in Amerindie cross-dressing punk rock thriftshop nerds. Also, the Wimps are "The mountains are out today" true-blue Seattleites. Making the most of your frustrations; post-punk power pop. 

"Yes I'm the old guy
at the party, alright
All the stuff you have done
I've seen one thousand times before
No, I'm not your dad
No, I'm not the landlord shutting you down
No, I'm just a man with no plans 
trying to spend some time at night getting out of the house"


Liberatory Zambian 1970s interpretation of American R&B, 1950s-1970s, vocal groups, hard rock, and electric garage jam band soulfulness. WITCH stands for "We Intend To Cause Havoc." Makes me think of Eddy Grant's '60s group, The Equals ("Baby Come Back," "Police On My Back) or The Wailers doing "Simmer Down" (1963). Original Zamrock. 

"It Happens Everyday," The Lemon Drops (1966): From Chicago, formed in high school. Hard-edged sunshine pop. The fuzztone guitars are exquisite. The vocal group next door Nuggets attitude another psychedelic pop ideal in single form. They don't want to hear about it anymore but bash it out with punk style nonetheless. 


"STOP," B.W.H. (1983): Also known as Blackway and Helene; a Dj-producer and his film actress wife. The groove is impossibly tight but it's the spare woozy vocal chorus that throws everything off kilter and gives it that trippy psychedelic feel. Minimalist electro funk masterpiece. Some of the best of Italo-Disco.